Given
data Maybe a = Just a
             | Nothing
we have
data Free Maybe a
     = Pure a
     | Free (Just (Free Maybe a))
     | Free Nothing
which is equivalent to
data Hopes a
     = Confirmed a
     | Possible (Hopes a)
     | Failed
or equivalently (if you promise to evaluate the fst element first) (Nat, Maybe a), aka MaybeT (Writer Nat) a with
data Nat = Z | S Nat
data Writer Nat a = Writer Nat a
data MaybeT (Writer Nat) a = MaybeT (Nat, Maybe a)